Predict | China's future demand for antimony resources production will continue to increase
Antimony in the earth's crust mainly by the elemental, stibnite, square antimony ore, antimony and antimony China exist in the form of ochre.
Antimony is a poor conductor of electricity and heat, not easy oxidation at room temperature, corrosion resistance.
Antimony metal is mainly used for manufacture of alloy, often used in the manufacture of lead-acid battery, chemical piping, cable sheathing, bearing and gear;
High purity antimony metal used in the production of semiconductor, electric heating device, far infrared device and military products.
In addition, antimony oxide is widely used in flame retardant, ceramic, glass, rubber, paint, textile and chemical products.
Current research on China's future antimony resources demand forecasting is not much, in recent years, the only Li Zengda on China and predict the antimony resources demand over the next three years, a rare on China's future demand for antimony resources long-term forecasts.
This paper on the basis of previous studies, the demand for antimony resources over the next 15 years in China.
Considering antimony kind of actual situation and applicable conditions of all kinds of forecasting method, this paper select department analysis as the main forecast method, and the analogy method and trend extrapolation method for auxiliary.
This article will be concluded on the basis of Chinese antimony resources consumption history rule, a reference to the United States and Japan's consumption history of antimony resources, and analyses the future development trend of Chinese antimony resources consumption areas, antimony resources total demand forecast for China's future.
01
The global and Chinese antimony resources consumption history
The world's major antimony consumption state-owned China and the United States, Japan.
Antimony in 1980 ~ 2013, the global consumption changes can be roughly divided into two stages: from 1980 to 2002 as the first stage, the present overall rising trend from 1980 to 1997, 1997 ~ 2002 is constantly falling fast;
For the second phase, from 2003 to 2013 showed a trend of rapid growth from 2003 to 2008, 2009 as the financial crisis, global consumption of antimony drops rapidly, rebounded sharply in 2010, after 2010, began to slow down.
Change characteristics similar to the United States, Japan, antimony consumption from 1980 to 1997 as a whole is fluctuated type growth, is the fluctuation down after 1997.
Chinese antimony consumption as a whole is growing trend, can be roughly divided into two stages: 1980 ~ 2004 years of slow growth, presents the slow shocks upward trend, total remain under 20000 t;
2004 ~ 2013 years of rapid growth, Chinese antimony resources consumption from 2004 to 2010 the average annual growth rate of about 23.5%, in 2006 China's antimony consumption reached 40000 t, more than doubled in 2004, more than the United States, Japan and other major consumer countries, antimony antimony to become the world's first consumer, in 2010 China's antimony consumption reached peak at 71000 t, then has fallen slightly, antimony consumption is about 58000 t in China in 2013, fell 3.3% year on year (figure 1).
Figure 1 1980 ~ 2013 of the world's major countries antimony consumption change
(source: USGS, JOGMEC WBMS, China nonferrous metals industry association)
Global main antimony consumption for flame retardant, followed by lead-acid batteries.
1980 ~ 2013, the flame retardant field antimony consumption proportion to keep for a long time in more than 50% of total consumption (figure 2).
Antimony in China over the past 20 years great changes have taken place in the consumption structure, main show is in the field of flame retardant antimony consumption rising proportion.
1996 flame retardants of antimony consumption accounted for only 5%, in 2008 has been increased to 50%, then the share of basic remain unchanged.
2013 China antimony consumption structure is as follows: flame retardant accounted for 50%, lead-acid battery accounted for 17%, chemical products accounted for 15%, glass ceramic accounted for 10%, other 8% (figure 3).
Given that China is still in middle industrialization, refer to the United States, Japan and the world at present situation of the consumption structure of antimony resources, and in the next 15 years, flame retardants, lead-acid battery still will be China's main antimony resources consumption.
Figure 2 1980 ~ 2013 global antimony consumption structure change
(source: WBMS)
Figure 3 Chinese antimony consumption structure change
(source: China nonferrous metals industry association)
02
Chinese antimony resources demand forecast in the future
China's antimony resources is mainly used in flame retardant field, followed by lead-acid batteries, chemicals, and glass ceramics, etc.
Antimony in this paper, by analyzing the consumption characteristics and the future development trend, refer to the United States and Japan antimony consumption history and the present situation, and combined with actual situation of China's own characteristics, the demand forecast in 2017 ~ 2030 Chinese antimony resources change situation.
2.1 antimony flame retardant field demand forecasting
In 2013 China's flame retardant production of 300000 t, and more than 80% plastic, rubber (10%), textiles accounted for 5%, other 5%.
According to the national bureau of statistics, 2005 ~ 2005, the Chinese plastic products at an average annual growth rate of 15.7% growth, "twelfth five-year" period, the production of plastic products is still growing, average annual growth rate of 8.4%, slightly higher than the national average annual GDP growth rate (figure 4).
"Much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" period, as China's social and economic development into the "new normal", national GDP growth into rapid growth (6% ~ 7%), China's plastic products production average annual growth rate relative to the "twelfth five-year" will inevitably declined.
Is expected in 2016 ~ 2020, with further expansion of China's urbanization construction, in the plastic processing industry become more high-end, China plastic yield average annual growth rate will remain at about 7%, to 2020 is likely to be an annual capacity of 100 million t.
Figure 4 2005 ~ 2015 plastic products production in our country
(source: national bureau of statistics)
With the growth of the domestic plastic products, China flame retardant production will continue to grow.
In addition, because of flame retardant legislation is still in the preliminary stage in our country, result in flame retardant plastics of plastic products in China is far less than Europe and the United States and other developed countries, the proportion of the future with the constant improvement of flame retardants in China relevant laws, the spread of flame retardant plastics in our country using range is expanding.
Is expected during the period of "thirteen", China's annual flame retardant production growth will be slightly higher than the growth of plastic products, about 8%, in 2020 China's flame retardant production will be more than 500000 t.
Antimony series inorganic flame retardants used alone flame retardant effect is too small, but with phosphorus-containing flame retardant and can greatly increase the efficiency of the flame retardant.
Antimony - phosphorus-containing flame resistance main advantage is flame retardant effect is good, the cost is low, add quantity is little, good compatibility and material;
Main drawback is the large amount of smoke, hydrogen halide and antimony trioxide dust is harmful to human body.
Under the pressure of increasingly stringent environmental regulations, phosphorus-containing flame retardant market share is constantly being halogen-free flame retardants, hitherto 2013 aluminum hydroxide flame retardant has replaced the bromine flame retardants, become the world's largest consumption of flame retardants, total share reached 33.3%.
Halogen-free flame retardants, of course, there is still a flame retardant efficiency is low, the mechanical properties of the material will produce negative effects such as faults, a new harmless phosphorus-containing flame retardants are also constantly develop, even in the United States and Europe, in the field of some higher requirements on the flame retardant efficiency, phosphorus-containing flame retardants still cannot be replaced, thus phosphorus-containing flame retardants in the short term is difficult to completely withdraw from the market, the future will also continue to improve in the direction of environmental protection.
, in the middle of the current China is in the industrialization development of flame retardant technology level is still in development stage, so the high cost performance of antimony - phosphorus-containing flame retardants is still the first choice.
The current domestic antimony - phosphorus-containing flame retardants for flame retardant proportion reached 77% of the total (including bromine flame retardants (37%), chlorine flame retardants (20%), antimony trioxide 20%), phosphorus-containing flame retardants (6%), aluminum hydroxide flame retardants accounted for 5%, other 12%.
Restricted by the development of technology and the impact of China's national conditions, the consumption pattern in the next 15 years won't have too big change, antimony - phosphorus-containing flame retardants will remain the main domestic use of flame retardants.
According to Chinese industry research network "2015 China's antimony market research and development trend forecast report, in 2014 China's antimony downstream consumption of about 58000 t, antimony flame retardant field consumption still accounts for 50%, to 29000 t, flat with 2013, this means that China's antimony consumption decline is over, in the field of flame retardants and the current prices are low, as the growth of the China's flame retardant production, antimony flame retardant field consumption could usher in a new growth period in the future.
During the period of "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in", we expect China's antimony - phosphorus-containing flame retardant yield average annual growth rate will be slightly less than an average annual growth rate, total flame retardants will be at about 6%, and during the period of "difference", as domestic GDP growth to slow further, the development of halogen-free flame retardant, improvement of environmental protection, antimony - phosphorus-containing flame retardant yield average annual growth rate will reduce further, will be around 5%.
Considering the traditional antimony - halogen flame retardant antimony trioxide are faced with is ultra-fine antimony oxide, colloid antimony pentoxide, zinc borate and other irreplaceable position, namely the antimony - halogen flame retardant, antimony content is reduced, therefore, is expected to "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" period, China's antimony in the field of flame retardant consumption average annual growth rate at about 5%, and during the period of "difference", is about 3%.
Antimony is expected in 2017, China in the field of flame retardant consumption is about 33500 t, is about 38900 t, 2020 to 2025 is about 45000 t.